During the offseason last year, I wrote a piece using the Production Ratio from Pat Kirwan's book, "Take Your Eye Off the Ball." The Production Ratio is used to measure the playmaking potential for the Front 7 players on Defense coming out of college. There are many aspects to scouting -- Character, Work ethic, Intelligence, Football instincts, Competitiveness and Developmental upside to name a few, but this formula can be used to narrow down the players to focus on during the National Scouting Combine that will be held this week in Indianapolis.
The formula goes like this:
(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS)/NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO
What we are looking for someone who scores a 1.0 or better. As a point of reference, other players drafted by the Broncos last year, Nate Irving and Mike Mohamed, had scores of 1.4 and .54 respectively. 7th round pick Jeremy Beal had a 1.62 score and we will see if he can transition from Linebacker to Defensive End.
With special thanks and a Mile High Salute to Lars (One.Cool.Customer) over at Blogging the Boys for this next table and living up to his handle, here's a look at the 2011 standout OLB rookies and their college Production Ratio:
| NFL | College Production | ||||||
| Draft Round / Pick | Player | Team | Sacks 2011 | Sacks | TFL | Games | Production Ratio |
| Round: 1 / Pick: 7 | Aldon Smith | SF | 14 | 17 | 29 | 23 | 2.00 |
| Round: 1 / Pick: 2 | Von Miller | DEN | 11.5 | 33 | 50.5 | 47 | 1.78 |
| Round: 1 / Pick: 16 | Ryan Kerrigan | WAS | 7.5 | 37.5 | 55.5 | 48 | 1.94 |
| Round: 2 / Pick: 43 | Brooks Reed | HOU | 6 | 17 | 25 | 46 | 0.91 |
| Round: 3 / Pick: 70 | Justin Houston | KC | 5.5 | 20 | 38 | 36 | 1.61 |
| Round: 2 / Pick: 39 | Akeem Ayers | TEN | 2 | 14 | 29.5 | 37 | 1.18 |
| OVR | Name | School | Hgt | Wgt | 40 Tm | Sks | TFL | Gm | P. Ratio | TTKL | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | Bruce Irvin (DE) | West Virginia | 6'2" | 245 | 4.50 | 22.5 | 29.0 | 25 | 2.06 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 61 | *Jonathan Massaquoi (DE) | Troy | 6'3" | 250 | 4.66 | 19.5 | 31.0 | 25 | 2.02 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
| 38 | LaVonte David | Nebraska | 6'1" | 225 | 4.62 | 11.5 | 28.0 | 27 | 1.46 | 285 | 12 | 2 |
| 285 | Miles Burris | San Diego St. | 6'2" | 235 | 4.73 | 19.0 | 47.0 | 50 | 1.32 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
| 154 | Kyle Wilber | Wake Forest | 6'4" | 249 | 4.70 | 13.5 | 35.5 | 43 | 1.14 | 195 | 6 | 0 |
| 257 | Adrian Robinson | Temple | 6'1" | 250 | 4.73 | 22.5 | 33.5 | 50 | 1.12 | 156 | 4 | 2 |
| 64 | Shea McClellin (DE) | Boise St. | 6'3" | 248 | 4.74 | 19.5 | 32.0 | 49 | 1.05 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
| 113 | *Terrell Manning | N. Carolina St. | 6'3" | 225 | 4.63 | 10.0 | 27.5 | 36 | 1.04 | 193 | 9 | 5 |
| 148 | Brandon Lindsey (DE) | Pittsburgh | 6'2" | 255 | 4.68 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 45 | 1.02 | 112 | 3 | 1 |
| 167 | Emmanuel Acho | Texas | 6'2" | 245 | 4.79 | 8.5 | 39.0 | 48 | 0.99 | 262 | 9 | 2 |
| 20 | Courtney Upshaw | Alabama | 6'2" | 265 | 4.76 | 16.0 | 35.5 | 53 | 0.97 | 140 | 4 | 1 |
| 213 | Darius Fleming | Notre Dame | 6'2" | 255 | 4.65 | 15.5 | 32.5 | 50 | 0.96 | 158 | 7 | 2 |
| 53 | *Ronnell (Travis) Lewis | Oklahoma | 6'2" | 244 | 4.63 | 10.0 | 28.5 | 34 | 0.90 | 118 | 0 | 0 |
| 363 | Brandon Marshall | Nevada | 6'1" | 245 | 4.76 | 6.0 | 33.5 | 52 | 0.76 | 359 | 16 | 3 |
| 210 | Danny Trevathan | Kentucky | 6'0" | 232 | 4.68 | 5.0 | 31.5 | 51 | 0.72 | 372 | 7 | 4 |
| 293 | Tahir Whitehead | Temple | 6'1" | 228 | 4.70 | 7.0 | 22.5 | 50 | 0.65 | 163 | 5 | 1 |
| 233 | Tank Carder | TCU | 6'2" | 236 | 4.67 | 5.5 | 25.0 | 50 | 0.61 | 228 | 19 | 4 |
| 266 | Demario Davis | Arkansas St. | 6'2" | 232 | 4.60 | 7.0 | 22.5 | 48 | 0.61 | 230 | 7 | 4 |
| 95 | Nigel Bradham | Florida St. | 6'2" | 249 | 4.67 | 9.0 | 21.5 | 53 | 0.57 | 306 | 11 | 3 |
| 132 | Keenan Robinson | Texas | 6'3" | 240 | 4.68 | 5.5 | 22.5 | 51 | 0.55 | 297 | 10 | 2 |
| 33 | Zach Brown | No. Carolina | 6'2" | 230 | 4.45 | 5.5 | 19.0 | 47 | 0.52 | 230 | 4 | 7 |
| 86 | Josh Kaddu | Oregon | 6'3" | 235 | 4.65 | 3.5 | 10.0 | 26 | 0.52 | 58 | 2 | 0 |
| 383 | Ryan Baker | LSU | 6'0" | 236 | 4.77 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 50 | 0.50 | 174 | 2 | 0 |
| 426 | Steven Johnson | Kansas | 6'1" | 241 | 3.76 | 3.0 | 11.5 | 35 | 0.41 | 229 | 5 | 1 |
| 478 | Nathan Stupar | Penn St. | 6'1" | 239 | 4.77 | 5.0 | 14.5 | 52 | 0.38 | 205 | 10 | 4 |
| 194 | Tyler Nielsen | Iowa | 6'3" | 235 | 4.54 | 1.0 | 8.5 | 44 | 0.22 | 134 | 5 | 1 |
| OVR | Player | School | Hgt | Wgt | 40Tm | Sk | TFL | Gm | P.Ratio | TTKL | TPG | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 253 | Shawn Loiseau | Merrimack | 6'0" | 241 | 4.68 | 11.0 | 36.5 | 38 | 1.25 | 382 | 10.05 | 2 | 1 |
| 57 | Sean Spence | Miami | 5'11" | 224 | 4.58 | 10.5 | 47.0 | 47 | 1.22 | 318 | 6.76 | 12 | 1 |
| 16 | *Luke Kuechly | Boston College | 6'2" | 237 | 4.80 | 2.5 | 33.5 | 38 | 1.00 | 532 | 14.0 | 10 | 7 |
| 150 | Mychal Kendricks | California | 5'11" | 240 | 4.72 | 13.5 | 36.5 | 51 | 0.98 | 258 | 5.06 | 7 | 4 |
| 318 | Chris Marve | Vanderbilt | 6'0" | 242 | 4.86 | 10.0 | 36.0 | 49 | 0.94 | 397 | 8.10 | 5 | 1 |
| 115 | Audie Cole | N.C. State | 6'4" | 239 | 4.84 | 14.0 | 32.0 | 51 | 0.90 | 276 | 7.46 | 8 | 1 |
| 131 | James-Michael Johnson | Nevada | 6'2" | 240 | 4.68 | 7.5 | 37.5 | 54 | 0.83 | 295 | 5.46 | 11 | 3 |
| 88 | *Vontaze Burflict | Arizona St. | 6'3" | 250 | 4.67 | 7.0 | 22.5 | 37 | 0.80 | 228 | 6.16 | 11 | 1 |
| 176 | Jerry Franklin | Arkansas | 6'1" | 241 | 4.60 | 10.0 | 31.0 | 51 | 0.80 | 369 | 7.24 | 14 | 5 |
| 244 | Adrien Cole | Louisiana Tech | 5'11" | 250 | 4.78 | 6.0 | 27.0 | 43 | 0.77 | 324 | 7.53 | 6 | 1 |
| 46 | Bobby Wagner | Utah St. | 6'0" | 232 | 4.69 | 4.5 | 29.5 | 48 | 0.71 | 466 | 9.29 | 9 | 4 |
| 298 | D.J. Holt | California | 6'0" | 242 | 4.84 | 5.0 | 28.0 | 50 | 0.66 | 218 | 4.36 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 | *Dont'a Hightower | Alabama | 6'4" | 260 | 4.78 | 5.0 | 21.0 | 44 | 0.59 | 235 | 5.34 | 7 | 1 |
| 269 | Najae Goode | West Virginia | 6'0" | 245 | 4.76 | 8.0 | 22.5 | 52 | 0.59 | 157 | 3.02 | 7 | 2 |
| 370 | Caleb McSurdy | Montana | 6'1" | 251 | 4.83 | 4.5 | 17.0 | 56 | 0.38 | 293 | 5.23 | 6 | 3 |
| 191 | Chris Galippo | USC | 6'2" | 250 | 4.74 | 1.5 | 15.5 | 51 | 0.33 | 166 | 3.25 | 12 | 5 |
This does not take into account whether these players come from a 3-4 or a 4-3 system, but a Middle Linebacker in a 4-3 needs to be primarily a Tackling machine. If he can accumulate Sacks and Tackles For a Loss, it's a bonus. Luke Kuechly's production numbers show why he is the top ranking Linebacker this year.
A few things to keep in mind here are that John Fox's ideal Linebacker will be around 6-1 to 6-2 in height and weigh about 235 to 245 pounds. And the faster the better, but the player also had to have outstanding instincts
75% of all Linebackers from 1994-2003 who made at least 56 starts in their first five seasons, were drafted in the top ten spots. From 11-20, that number drops to 63.6%. Picks 21-50 drop to a 48.4% rate. 51-80, 30.2% and 81-120, 15%. This does not mean they had success, an impact or outstanding Pro Bowl seasons, merely that percentage of return (in playing time) for their draft position.
The Broncos first three picks are the 25th, 57th and ~88-89th in the 2012 NFL Draft. As things stand from this point, Sean Spence looks pretty attractive with that 2nd pick. I like Bobby Wagner's production too. His Production Ratio number isn't the highest, but he is quick and racks up Tackles. James Laurenaitis had similar numbers a few years back, though he went to Ohio State. He has averaged over 100 Tackles all 3 years he's been in the league and that's the kind of guy I'd like playing the MIKE. However, this is just the first step of the journey. We can revisit this next week after the Combine, along with a new set of numbers. So stay tuned.
7 recs | 25 comments
Excellent write.
I love Sean Spence but i wonder if he could hold up at the point if attack at the nfl level. He almost looks to have the build of a SS.
swg777 - February 20, 2012
BRUUUUUCE!!!!
My boy from the mountains is a BEEEEAST!!! I’d love to see him come to us in the 3rd or so, and be that pass rush specialist we so desperately need. He has been compared to a young Lawrence Taylor, and even though I doubt he will ever be THAT good (who is), he does have many comparable qualities.
PaleHorse78 - February 20, 2012
I like him I just seriously have concerns about him holding up against the run. The colts have 2 small DEs and they struggle against the run quite often.
Or would you have him as a WLB?
BroncoMath101 - February 20, 2012
why is he ranked 109 with that many sacks? WHat are his red flags?
alkatraz76 - February 20, 2012
maybe because his division one playing time has only been 2 years
too small a sample perhaps?
KaptainKirk - February 20, 2012
Nice article Kirk
My favourite linebacker no scratch that football player in the whole draft is Lavonte David. Good production ratio, tackles well and contributes in coverage.
SteveUK - February 20, 2012
He is an interesting prospect.
I think EFX will draft a linebacker somewhere in the draft after the first round.
bfree2bronc - February 20, 2012
Question...
The production ratio is certainly interesting, but it really has limits as it focuses on “big plays” in the backfield.
Are there any statistics that measure the yards gained per play when the LB makes the tackle (separated for passes and runs)?
For example, let’s say DJ Williams has 5 tackles on rushes in a game. The yards gained were -1, 1, 2, 4, and 7. His YPT (yards per tackle) for runs would be 2.6.
Tezcatlipoca - February 20, 2012
I'm not sure if anyone has done a study like that.
If anyone knows, it would likely be Topher. That would be a pretty big undertaking.
Like I was saying, this is mostly to look and see who you should take a closer look at or keep an eye on. And you are tright, it is limited to a small facet of the whole evaluation process.
KaptainKirk - February 20, 2012
I haven't seen a stuy like that either,
But I’d consider this little tidbit from Brian Burke, from an article titled ‘Passing=Winning’:
One.Cool.Customer - February 20, 2012
That's a great idea
I’d have to look into it, the tough thing would be trying to apply missed tackles to the formula, since a number of top run stoppers in the league are boom-or-bust when it comes to tackles, it’s either way back or it’s a missed tackles.
Topher Doll - February 21, 2012
I would question EFX taking a Sean Spence in the 2nd at 224lbs.
There are some possibilities at ILB from the 2nd rd on down. Cal’s Mychal Kendricks is an interesting prospect. Audie Cole is the player I hope we draft on the 3rd, he has too many tools to pass up imo…
bfree2bronc - February 20, 2012
Yes, it all depends on where these guys are at when the Broncos are on the clock
If they have a number one ranked player at any position at #25, they will pull the trigger. I still have hope for Nate Irving though. His P. Ratio was too good to think he won’t show better than he has so far.
KaptainKirk - February 20, 2012
Nice write-up Kap
I am really interested to see how some of the smaller school ILBs do in the combine. Of course, I hope that this is all a pointless exercise and that Irving is the future at MLB for the Broncos.
DE_BroncoFan - February 20, 2012
Me too
That would make a lot of things clearer and move to another priority.
KaptainKirk - February 20, 2012
Great job KK. Really great read and the formula makes sense to me...
The only thing we need to factor in is level of competition, but gives a good blueprint on what we need to look for when drafting ANY LB, in ANY round, especially when considering value for money, which clearly EFX is all about!
boydy2669 - February 20, 2012
For sure.
KaptainKirk - February 20, 2012
Love this kind os post, Kaptain
Awesome stuff. And as we can see on your other piece, the prod. ratio is a very accurate info to evaluate LBs.
Fabio Broncos - February 20, 2012
I love Sean Spence but wonder if he is too light to play in the middle. I'm sure he could add the weight but would he be worth a 2nd round pick to sit the bench while he bulks up?
I also think Shawn Loiseau is intriguing and can be had later and be great depth.
Keuchly is a stud for not being asked to get after the QB hardly ever. The fact that he has a production ratio of 1.0 while not really be a sack specialist is pretty awesome. I would not mind him falling to us at 25 :). I wouldn’t be surprised if that 40 time pushed him down though.
BroncoMath101 - February 20, 2012
I could really see that happening. I've seen him play 6 or 7 times on TV. He never stood as straight-line fast.
His functional speed is impressive, in that he can find his way through traffic to meet the ball-carrier in the hole.
DE_BroncoFan - February 20, 2012
I just wonder if his great instincts will be able to compensate for his slower speed at the next level.
BroncoMath101 - February 20, 2012
I know I am in the minority here and will get called out on this,
but I wonder how important it is to have a guy similar to Von in the event he is hurt worse than last year and would go on IR. If that were to happen we would be screwed. Especially if the D is schemed with the presence of someone of his capabilities at the Sam position. Last year may have been a wake up call to Fox that he has no one to fill Von’s shoes even slightly. Ronnell (Travis) Lewis sounds like a perfect backup to Von. Problem is he would be a 2nd round pick. A rebuilding team can’t spend 2nd round picks on backups. Unless or course our major holes are filled before the draft :)
Digger24 - February 20, 2012
I'd say its more important to have a DE who can get those sacks so that if we did lose Von we wouldn't lose half our sack total.
We need a guy opposite Doom that can get to the QB consistently. Then if Von went down we’d just need one of our backup LBs to actually play the LB position without having to worry about rushing him.
BroncoMath101 - February 20, 2012
Another nice one from KK.
I looked at the linebackers in a similar fashion in late 2011. I tried to find the spreadsheet and data I compiled, but I must’ve named it poorly. In the work I did, I only looked at numbers from 2011.
I created an index that included solo tackles, tackles-for-loss and sacks, with a heavy weighting on tackles-for-loss. I figured assisted tackles could be fudged (see Luke Kuechly) and sacks could be a product of scheme; but tackles-for-loss might be the best reflection of a linebacker’s instincts/reactions/preparation (maybe I’m wrong about this, but it made sense to me). And then I came up with a per game number.
The index served as the starting point for additional analysis and film study, which led me to Arkansas’ Jerry Franklin. The kid is super-prolific, fast, a leader and about the right size. I love his instincts and his technique. Ask any Razorback fan and they love Jerry Franklin. Plus, he shares my first name and last initial.
In fairness, Kuechly also scored highly on the index. But as I started to look at his tape, I saw lots of tackles downfield. Plus, I saw some stat-inflation with him (tackles that were counted as solos but should’ve been assisted tackles).
But Kuechly isn’t half the athlete that Jerry Franklin is. Kuechly reminds me a little of CU’s Jordan Dizon. For one thing, they’re both white. And that’s about it.
In all seriousness, Dizon was super-prolific at CU. He actually had a similar career-arc to Kuechly. Coming out, many of the same things that are being said about Kuechly were said about Jordan Dizon. You know the whole What-he-lacks-in-athleticism-he-more-than-makes-up-for-in-instincts-and-smarts-blah-blah-blah. The latest reports are that Jordan Dizon is now out of football. He couldn’t even make the Detroit Lions and I’m talking about the winless Lions, not the 2011 Lions. I’m not saying that Luke Kuechly will end up being the next Jordan Dizon, but…tread carefully. Players with subpar athleticism don’t last long in the NFL.
Anyway, enough about me and Jerry Franklin. Thanks Kirk. Good read.
Agent Jerry Fletcher - February 20, 2012
Thanks for the input
I will definitely keep my eye on Franklin.
KaptainKirk - February 21, 2012
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Mile High Report to post a comment.