We looked at the Production Ratio for the Linebackers who were invited to the NFL Combine on Monday and today we will take a look at the Defensive Linemen to narrow down the search for players that would fit with the Denver Broncos in our eternal quest to play Armchair GMs'. I split them into two categories just like I did with the Linebackers -- the Defensive Tackles (Nose Tackles too) and the Ends. To add some perspective, I charted some of the leading players from last years draft class along with their selection slot and their Production Ratio from their time in college. Because this is a stand alone post, I will restate that this premise has been taken from Pat Kirwan's book, "Take Your Eye Off the Ball."
The Production Ratio is used to measure the playmaking potential for the Front 7 players on Defense coming out of college. The formula goes like this:
(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS)/NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO
| Rnd(Pk) | Name | Team | Pos | TKL | Sck | P.Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1(21) | Phillip Taylor | CLE | DT | 59 | 4.0 | 0.58 |
| 3(77) | Jurrell Casey | TEN | DT | 52 | 2.5 | 0.79 |
| 5(142) | Karl Klug | TEN | DT | 20 | 7.0 | 1.04 |
| 3(65) | Terrell McClain | CAR | DT | 19 | 1.0 | 0.50 |
| 3(87) | Drake Nevis | IND | DT | 19 | 0.0 | 0.92 |
| 6(184) | David Carter | ARI | DT | 16 | 1.0 | 0.24 |
| 1(13) | Nick Fairley | DET | DT | 15 | 1.0 | 1.50 |
| 2(53) | Stephen Paea | CHI | DT | 14 | 2.0 | 1.20 |
| 4(106) | Christian Ballard | MIN | DT | 13 | 0.0 | 0.68 |
| OVR | Name | School | Hgt. | Wgt. | 40 Tm | Sks | TFL | Gm | P. Ratio | TTKLs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | Jared Crick | Nebraska | 6'6" | 285 | 4.80 | 20.0 | 35.0 | 42 | 1.31 | 167 |
| 199 | Derek Wolfe | Cincinnati | 6'5" | 310 | 5.19 | 19.5 | 37.0 | 45 | 1.25 | 162 |
| 351 | Chas Alecxih | Pittsburgh | 6'4" | 285 | 5.02 | 18 | 29.5 | 41 | 1.16 | 127 |
| 134 | Brett Roy | Nevada | 6'3" | 280 | 4.88 | 18.0 | 39.0 | 50 | 1.14 | 149 |
| 7 | Devon Still | Penn St. | 6'5" | 305 | 5.06 | 10.5 | 32.5 | 40 | 1.07 | 113 |
| 129 | Malik Jackson | Tennessee | 6'5" | 270 | 4.82 | 13.0 | 27.5 | 39 | 1.04 | 126 |
| 66 | Billy Winn | Boise St. | 6'4" | 295 | 4.90 | 15.5 | 36.5 | 52 | 1.00 | 132 |
| 23 | *Jerel Worthy | Michigan St. | 6'3" | 310 | 5.04 | 12.0 | 27.5 | 40 | 0.99 | 107 |
| 511 | Renard Williams | E. Washington | 6'2" | 300 | 5.00 | 24.5 | 40.0 | 68 | 0.95 | 139 |
| 215 | Mike Daniels | Iowa | 6'1" | 280 | 4.84 | 15.5 | 27.0 | 45 | 0.94 | 123 |
| 440 | J.R. Sweezy | No. Carolina St. | 6'5" | 293 | 4.95 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 35 | 0.91 | 84 |
| 50 | Kendall Reyes | Connecticut | 6'4" | 296 | 4.99 | 11.5 | 32.5 | 49 | 0.90 | 142 |
| 325 | Matt Conrath | Virginia | 6'7" | 281 | 4.84 | 11.5 | 30.5 | 47 | 0.89 | 164 |
| 25 | *Fletcher Cox | Mississippi St. | 6'4" | 295 | 4.95 | 7.5 | 22.5 | 35 | 0.86 | 107 |
| 79 | *Marcus Forston | Miami | 6'3" | 300 | 4.95 | 7.0 | 17.5 | 31 | 0.79 | 60 |
| 28 | *Dontari Poe | Memphis | 6'5" | 350 | 5.00 | 5.0 | 21.5 | 35 | 0.76 | 101 |
| 96 | Mike Martin (NT) | Michigan | 6'2" | 304 | 4.98 | 10.0 | 25.0 | 49 | 0.71 | 172 |
| 457 | John Hughes | Cincinnati | 6'4" | 285 | 5.02 | 9.0 | 25.0 | 50 | 0.68 | 141 |
| 471 | Rennie Moore | Clemson | 6'3" | 266 | 4.83 | 8.5 | 21.0 | 46 | 0.64 | 98 |
| 234 | Jaye Howard | Florida | 6'3" | 303 | 5.05 | 7.0 | 19.0 | 43 | 0.6 | 111 |
| 116 | Kheeston Randall (NT) | Texas | 6'5" | 295 | 5.10 | 5.0 | 21.5 | 46 | 0.58 | 82 |
| 397 | Markus Kuhn | No. Carolina St. | 6'3" | 300 | 4.90 | 7.5 | 18.5 | 48 | 0.54 | 118 |
| 267 | Travian Robertson | So. Carolina | 6'4" | 305 | 5.08 | 6.5 | 21.0 | 56 | 0.49 | 123 |
| 13 | *Michael Brockers | LSU | 6'6" | 306 | 4.95 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 27 | 0.48 | 79 |
| 104 | Alameda Ta'Amu | Washington | 6'3" | 337 | 5.20 | 7.5 | 16.5 | 50 | 0.48 | 109 |
| 32 | Brandon Thompson | Clemson | 6'2" | 310 | 4.95 | 4.5 | 21.0 | 53 | 0.48 | 161 |
| 81 | DaJohn Harris | USC | 6'4" | 310 | 5.18 | 5.0 | 14.5 | 43 | 0.45 | 77 |
| 360 | Dom Hamilton | Missouri | 6'5" | 305 | 5.25 | 5.5 | 15.0 | 46 | 0.44 | 140 |
| 331 | Tydreke Powell | No. Carolina | 6'3" | 310 | 5.30 | 6.5 | 16.0 | 53 | 0.42 | 136 |
| 292 | Vaughn Meatoga | Hawaii | 6'2" | 295 | 5.00 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 52 | 0.35 | 81 |
| 178 | Josh Chapman (NT) | Alabama | 6'1" | 310 | 5.02 | 2.5 | 13.5 | 52 | 0.31 | 88 |
| 135 | Loni Fangupo | Brigham Young | 6'1" | 331 | 5.08 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 23 | 0.28 | 32 |
| 378 | Christian Tupou (NT) | USC | 6'2" | 300 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 42 | 0.18 | 53 |
| Rnd(Pk) | Name | Team | Pos | TKL | Sck | P.Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1(14) | Robert Quinn | STL | DE | 23 | 5.0 | 1.54 |
| 1(11) | J.J. Watt | HOU | DE | 56 | 5.5 | 1.20 |
| 2(37) | Jabaal Sheard | CLE | DE | 55 | 8.5 | 1.19 |
| 5(165) | Pernell McPhee | BAL | DE | 23 | 6.0 | 1.14 |
| 1(20) | Adrian Clayborn | TB | DE | 42 | 7.5 | 1.11 |
| 1(3) | Marcell Dareus | BUF | DE | 43 | 5.5 | 0.93 |
Here are the invites at Defensive End. I have omitted double posting those players from the OLB post that will actually be running with this group. Julian Miller, Ryan Van Bergen and Taylor Thompson were not invited to the Combine.
| OVR | Name | School | Hgt. | Wgt. | 40 Tm | Sks | TFL | Gm | P. Ratio | TTKLs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | Vinny Curry | Marshall | 6'3" | 263 | 4.74 | 26.5 | 49.0 | 45 | 1.68 | 239 |
| 232 | Tyrone Crawford | Boise State | 6'4" | 276 | 4.74 | 13.5 | 27 | 25 | 1.62 | 76 |
| 254 | Scott Solomon | Rice | 6'3" | 270 | 4.79 | 24.0 | 43.5 | 47 | 1.44 | 207 |
| 14 | *Nick Perry | USC | 6'3" | 250 | 4.60 | 21.5 | 29.5 | 37 | 1.38 | 103 |
| 208 | Julian Miller | West Virginia | 6'4" | 268 | 4.85 | 27.5 | 42.5 | 52 | 1.35 | 185 |
| 316 | Frank Alexander | Oklahoma | 6'4" | 255 | 4.85 | 20.5 | 44.0 | 48 | 1.34 | 142 |
| 12 | Quinton Coples | No. Carolina | 6'6" | 285 | 4.76 | 24.0 | 40.5 | 50 | 1.29 | 144 |
| 24 | Whitney Mercilus | Illinois | 6'4" | 265 | 4.68 | 18.0 | 29.0 | 37 | 1.27 | 81 |
| 59 | *Chandler Jones | Syracuse | 6'5" | 265 | 4.80 | 10.0 | 27.0 | 32 | 1.16 | 147 |
| 129 | Jake Bequette | Arkansas | 6'5" | 271 | 4.59 | 23.5 | 31 | 48 | 1.13 | 126 |
| 19 | Melvin Ingram | So. Carolina | 6'2" | 276 | 4.80 | 21.0 | 35.0 | 50 | 1.12 | 109 |
| 77 | Cam Johnson | Virginia | 6'4" | 270 | 4.76 | 12.5 | 33.5 | 42 | 1.09 | 123 |
| 34 | Andre Branch | Clemson | 6'5" | 260 | 4.77 | 18.5 | 33.0 | 48 | 1.07 | 186 |
| 170 | *Olivier Vernon | Miami | 6'4" | 265 | 4.73 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 30 | 1.00 | 82 |
| 101 | Trevor Guyton | California | 6'3" | 280 | 4.86 | 12.0 | 25 | 41 | 0.90 | 94 |
| 198 | *Donte Paige-Moss | No. Carolina | 6'7" | 260 | 4.75 | 11.0 | 19.5 | 34 | 0.90 | 83 |
| 332 | Ryan Van Bergen | Michigan | 6'6" | 288 | 4.84 | 14.5 | 27.5 | 50 | 0.84 | 135 |
| 243 | Derrick Shelby | Utah | 6'3" | 271 | 4.86 | 11.0 | 28 | 47 | 0.83 | 169 |
| 287 | Taylor Thompson | SMU | 6'6" | 287 | 4.85 | 18.0 | 22.5 | 50 | 0.81 | 139 |
| 334 | Jamie Blatnick | Oklahoma St. | 6'3" | 265 | 4.90 | 16.0 | 25.0 | 51 | 0.80 | 118 |
| 300 | Justin Francis | Rutgers | 6'4" | 275 | 4.85 | 12.0 | 22.0 | 43 | 0.77 | 106 |
| 181 | Jacquies Smith | Missouri | 6'4" | 255 | 4.60 | 13.0 | 26.0 | 51 | 0.76 | 159 |
| 160 | Jack Crawford | Penn State | 6'5" | 273 | 4.79 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 48 | 0.62 | 89 |
| 359 | Jamaar Jarrett | Arizona St. | 6'5" | 262 | 4.90 | 7.5 | 20.5 | 46 | 0.61 | 100 |
| 304 | DeAngelo Tyson | Georgia | 6'2" | 316 | 5.00 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 50 | 0.23 | 79 |
Now you can see why I have stated this is a deep draft for Defensive Ends. Half of the invites graded out well in the Production Ratio. Just by sheer volume I would venture that the Broncos will grab one of these players.
Former Broncos GM Ted Sundquist wrote an article on Defensive Ends and another on Defensive Tackles. They are both worthwhile reading. He includes these tidbits from separate studies:
71.4% of Defensive Ends drafted 1-10 in the first round made 56 starts in their first 5 seasons (1994-2003) and from picks 11-20 that number fell to 36.8%, 30% from picks 21-50.
Defensive Tackles are most commonly found in the 1st round (21%), 2nd round (12%) and as undrafted free agents (18%). That last number seems significantly high, but in comparison to other positions is actually on the low end.
By this conclusion, it would be wise for the Broncos to secure a Defensive Tackle with one of their top two picks. The Defensive Ends are plentiful and could stand patience before selecting, but hey, I'm not a fly on the wall at Denver's draft headquarters, so this is all speculation. EFX will weigh their options, choose the best player possible and then we can analyze the moves. Just like always.
4 recs | 29 comments
Nice, KK
Good support for your conclusion in the last sentence….unless they have somebody specific on the FA screen, of course. I would lean toward drafting the DT position even if it takes a year or two to develop him.
idahobronc - February 22, 2012
You mentioned Mike Martin as an impressive NT. What about Dontari Poe?
The guy has 40 lbs on Martin and runs almost the exact same 40 time? Holy crap! His production ratio wasn’t too bad either (albeit probably against lesser competition). Still I think he would play NT at the next level and be great against the run. I love both guys though.
Great write up. It’ll be interested to come back to this after the draft to see who we picked and why.
BroncoMath101 - February 22, 2012
Whilst Martin played most of his football at NT it was noted that during Senior Bowl he was very impressive when one on one and led to speculation that he could be a better Under Tackle than Nose in the NFL.
Whatever he plays for a guy who will be around the 2nd-3rd round mark he would be a nice guy to have as part of a rotation.
SteveUK - February 22, 2012
Check out Martin's total tackles.
That’s a ton for an NT. What’s not to love about this kid? If he lasts until the third, I’ll be surprised.
Agent Jerry Fletcher - February 22, 2012
Justin Bannan type?
bfree2bronc - February 22, 2012
Stronger and more explosive, one on one could man handle some interior lineman.
SteveUK - February 23, 2012
I'd like any combination of
Poe/Martin
Cox/Poe
Poe/Anybody :)
Cox/Martin
Thompson/Martin
Maybe throw in Derek Wolfe in rd 4 as well :)
Wishful thinking.
BroncoMath101 - February 22, 2012
I'd love to have Crick if he fell to us
But he’s a distant cousin and we were in the same graduating class at Nebraska, so I’m extremely biased.
alacy9513 - February 22, 2012
I think you would be disappointed with Crick in Fox's defense. Now a 3/4 team like the Texans, Steelers and others would be a great fit.
And, the trouble with that is, if he turns out like a JJ Watt, then people that don’t know any better will say…See, see, we should have drafted him with our pick…
bfree2bronc - February 22, 2012
revisionist historians=eunuchs
neither one of them have any balls, hey-o!
the new Bradfather - February 22, 2012
I think he could fit in our system. There are guys clamoring (I have been one of them) for Jason Jones at DT who only weighs 276 lbs
Now I admit Crick is light but he was productive. I believe he can play DT in the 4-3 and I believe he has the athleticism to play as a DE on occasion. All he really would need IMO is a good NT to eat up some space and take on double teams regularly.
Crick is no Suh but he did do just as well without him as he did with him and Suh is doing just fine in a 4-3 (I know Suh has almost 20 lbs on him though).
BroncoMath101 - February 22, 2012
That may be so. If EFX draft him then we will know that they feel the same as you do...Excellent.
bfree2bronc - February 22, 2012
quality defensive linemen
whoever they are, let’s get them!
the new Bradfather - February 22, 2012
Lots to be excited about.
Vinny Curry was super-prolific. But I guess you only get credit for that if you go to Boston College.
A couple of comments on the two DTs who many believe will go in the first….
I just don’t get the Devon Still love. Even though he fared pretty well on this measurement, if you look at his games, he just doesn’t disrupt every play like you’d expect. To me, if you’re talking about DT in the first round, they need to jump out when you’re watching. Given Still’s role, he should’ve been penetrating and making the running back or quarterback account for him on every play. And that doesn’t happen. He might have everything physically, but I don’t know if he takes plays off or what. Color me unimpressed.
I’ve heard critics say Michael Brockers hasn’t been really productive. And this lens supports that notion. Granted, I think he played the 1 for LSU; but there are 1s here who performed well against this metric. I guess Brockers’ fans are betting on the future and his potential.
Malik Jackson (who’s quickly becoming a Jerry Fletcher favorite) will likely play DE on the closed end for the first two downs. And then I see him sliding inside on passing downs. I love this kid. Unlike Devon Still, Jackson shines on nearly every single play. It seems like the running back and quarterback are constantly having to move around him or change their path. He’s totally disruptive. The same can be said for Jared Crick. I think Crick and Jackson’s stats only tell part of the story. There are tons of “near sacks” or “near tackles-for-loss” that forced the quarterback to throw early or forced the running back to slow down and change direction. I don’t see that with Still at all.
I’m seeing lots of mocks with Still going to us at #25. At this point, I hope they’re wrong.
One more thing, given my fixation with Lamar Miller, I was reading an article this morning written by a guy who visited the training facility where a bunch of ’Canes are preparing for the combine. Apparently, Olivier Vernon is startlingly fast.
Anyway, good job, Kirk. I hope you’re feeling better.
Agent Jerry Fletcher - February 22, 2012
Wouldn't be surprised to see Still fall
And I will check out Malik Jackson. Thanks for the tip.
Broncologist - February 22, 2012
You're welcome.
Please let me know what you think of him.
Agent Jerry Fletcher - February 22, 2012
Looks like he has potential.
Out of curiosity I looked Malik up on You Tube. He does look good, lean, quick, and appears intelligent. He apparently transferred from Southern Cal so the thought occurred as to why?
BroncoCUbuffs - February 22, 2012
He got into some trouble.
Nothing too serious…he was charged with smuggling methamphetamine inside puppies and kittens.
Actually, it had to do with USC’s probation. He was able to transfer without having to sit out a year and given the uncertainty around the Trojan program, he jumped. I’ve heard glowing reviews from UT fans saying he’s a leader and has a non-stop motor. I can’t attest to the leadership stuff, but he goes after it on every play.
Agent Jerry Fletcher - February 22, 2012
Well, he's on my radar now. Thanks for the update...athough the puppies and kittens things threw me initially:O)
BroncoCUbuffs - February 22, 2012
Intriguing
Seems like a player whose draft stock could rise after the Combine and/or Pro Day. We could use another developmental DE with good upside.
Broncologist - February 22, 2012
Another one of those thought provoking posts. Thanks Kaptain.
As I come to grasp this BPA approach it is hoped the Broncos will get their man at DT @ the 25th pick but if they don’t I’m wondering if we don’t spending one of our 5th rounders and at least one DT in the 6th or 7th in trying to hit on one of those late round surprises. I can also see us bringing in 2 or 3 non-drafted FAs to see if we can’t uncover a gem there.
Whomever we pick at 25, unless we trade up or down, let it be someone they truly rate as BPA and not stretch for a position needs.
BroncoCUbuffs - February 22, 2012
Amen to that.
KaptainKirk - February 22, 2012
The DTs under 5/40 yd are a plus, but like you said Kirk, that 10 yd split will seperate the men from the boys...
If we draft one or 2 of these guys I would be stoked…Still, Worthy (motivation issues), Cox, Poe, Wolfe (my favorite WB), Reyes. Any one of those guys would be an upgrade in the middle imo. Brockers? One year wonder/redshirt sophomore? I don’t get the love for this guy to be a top 10 pick like some are saying, and that is because he is a raw athlete who may have come out early thinking he might get exposed next year if he stayed. Scouts and draft gurus give him such a high grade, and breathe out of the other side of their mouth that DE Whitney Mercilus doesn’t have it. That bothers me some and the Combines should show some thing concerning both men.
You give me Mecilus and Wolfe/Reyes and I’m ready to rock and roll baby!
bfree2bronc - February 22, 2012
I really want Mike Martin to be a Bronco bad.
If this guy, Justin Francis, ends up an UDFA I would love for him to come to Denver too.
Digger24 - February 22, 2012
Another great piece KK...I see many have Worthy going to us....I would be OK with that.
boydy2669 - February 22, 2012
I think I would be ok with that too.
KaptainKirk - February 22, 2012
Worthy might turn out to be the best DT in this draft if he would keep his work ethics up.
I can see a DT taking a play off now and then to pick up something the OLine or QB is doing, but when one is absent for plays on end that presents a problem. If he doesn’t turn into a great DT he will have wasted his athleticism imo, because the talent is there and ripe to be picked.
bfree2bronc - February 22, 2012
Late round gems
Based on your chart I would target Jake Bequette Arkansas 6’5" 271 4.59 23.5 31 48 1.13 and 215 Mike Daniels Iowa 6’1" 280 4.84 15.5 27.0 45 0.94 in the 3 or 4 round. Also mike Martin. These guys will be a steal
hhammer7man - February 22, 2012
Jerrel would be WORTHY of us :)
the new Bradfather - February 22, 2012
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